Commodity Tips for the Week

Gold:

Gold rallied on Friday to near a record high, posting its biggest three-week gain since November as investors cut exposure to risks stemming from Greece’s debt crisis and tumbling global stock markets. Gold futures rallied in afternoon trade to the firmest since December 4th as volatile equities and currencies prompted nervous anxious investors to buy gold. Investors piled into gold exchange traded funds and coins and bars, with bullion holdings in the biggest gold-backed ETF rising 20 tonnes on Thursday, the biggest one-day gain since February 2009.

Market Overview

COMEX gold is strong on charts and sustain above 1200 $ an ounce. Last week COMEX gold sustained above 1180$ an ounce, in the coming week 1226$ /1230$ an ounce will be a major resistance in gold. If COMEX gold breaks and sustains above 1230$ an ounce then it can move slightly upward and could come near 1240 $/ 1250$ an ounce. And below 1180$ an ounce can move slightly downward.

Strategy

For the next week traders can use the buy on lower level strategy if COMEX gold sustains above 1174 $ /1180$ an ounce by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX gold in the coming week would be 1175$ and 1150$
Major resistance for COMEX gold in the coming week would be 1230$ and 1250$
Major support in MCX gold is 17540 and 17100
Major resistance in MCX gold is 18180 and 18400

Copper:

U.S. copper futures ended up in extremely volatile business on Friday, as buyers moved in near the 300 level, a key technical area that will remain a challenge as European debt contagion fears linger.

Market Overview

As we mentioned last week COMEX copper below 300 did a low of 300.55, for the upcoming week 290 $/285 level can act as a good support for COMEX copper, if it breaks this level and sustains below it we can see 270 level.

Strategy

Copper is still bearish and for the next week one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels.
For the next week COMEX copper has important support of 300 and 285 and resistance of 341 and 356.
MCX copper has support at 291 and 282 and resistance at 334 and 350.

Commodity Tips for the Week

GOLD:
U.S. GOLD FUTURES ENDED 2 PERCENT LOWER ON FRIDAY, HITTING A 10-DAY LOW AS INVESTORS RUSHED TO TAKE PROFITS AFTER GOLDMAN SACHS, A MAJOR COMMODITIES PLAYER, WAS CHARGED WITH FRAUD BY REGULATORS. LAST WEEK COMEX GOLD BROKE THE LEVEL OF 1140$ AND SUSTAINED BELOW IT. IN THE COMING WEEK 1171/1180 $ AN OUNCE WILL ACT AS STRONG RESISTANCE. IF COMEX GOLD SUSTAINS BELOW 1120$ AN OUNCE THEN IT CAN MAKE A DOWNWARD RALLY BELOW IT.

STRATEGY

FOR THE NEXT WEEK TRADERS CAN USE THE SELL ON HIGHER LEVEL STRATEGY IF IT SUSTAINS BELOW $1150/ 1162 AN OUNCE BY KEEPING THE STRICT STOP LOSSES.
MAJOR SUPPORT FOR COMEX GOLD IN THE COMING WEEK WOULD BE 1105$ AND $1084
MAJOR RESISTANCE FOR COMEX GOLD IN THE COMING WEEK WOULD BE $1180 AND $1226
MAJOR SUPPORT IN MCX GOLD IS 16400 AND 15800
MAJOR RESISTANCE IN MCX GOLD IS 17130 AND 17650.

COPPER:

U.S. COPPER FUTURES FINISHED AT A THREE-WEEK LOW ON FRIDAY, AS RISK SENTIMENT CRUMBLED AND SAFE-HAVEN DOLLAR INVESTMENTS GREW AFTER THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION CHARGED GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP WITH FRAUD.

COMEX COPPER REMAINED WEEK THROUGH OUT THE PREVIOUS WEEK AND IT HAS FAILED TO CLOSE ABOVE THE ALL IMPORTANT LEVEL OF 359. MCX COPPER TOO DID NOT CROSS THE IMPORTANT RESISTANCE OF 358. FOR THE COMING WEEK UNTIL COMEX COPPER SUSTAIN ABOVE 359 LEVEL, ONE SHOULD USE THE STRATEGY OF SELL ON HIGHER LEVELS. IF COMEX COPPER SUSTAINS BELOW 350 WE CAN SEE IT AT 340 LEVELS. FOR THE NEXT WEEK COMEX COPPER HAS IMPORTANT SUPPORT OF 350 AND 328 AND RESISTANCE OF 359 AND 378. MCX COPPER HAS SUPPORT AT 332 AND 314 AND RESISTANCE AT 359 AND 371.

Stock Tips for the Week

Nifty Started the week with negative tone after reaching to financial year 09-10 record high of 5399.65 in the previous week. Nifty lost its upside momentum in the very first trading session and continued for entire week just ahead of RBI credit policy review due on Tuesday next week. Profit booking led the nifty retrace to low of 5237.55. Nifty is currently moving in the range of 130 points from 5230 to 5360 on account of low implied volatility. Technical indicators like RSI and stochastic oscillator are currently on the verge of entering into oversold zone and moving in medium negative territory. MACD has also shown negative divergence indicating correction in near term. Nifty is currently moving in rectangle and likely to break it on the lower side. Any decisive break on the lower front of the rectangle could take the nifty to 5150-5100 level. Expecting nifty to remain range bound in between 5150- 5325 in next week. Next week market movement will solely depend on RBI move. Any hike in key rates would led nifty to 5100-5000 levels, however probability of this seems very low as inflation figure is still in single digit which is temporal sign of relief for RBI. On the day of RBI policy review we could see high volatility in nifty. If the key rates remain unchanged we could see bounce back in nifty up to 5350 levels. Nifty has intermediate term support at 5150 and resistance at 5325. Nifty is currently trading below 5 and 13 day EMA which indicates weakness of the uptrend.

And now some stocks which trader must keep watch for next week are:

Oriental bank of commerce

CMP 326.65
Target 310
Stop loss 336
Support resistance 310/340

Sesa Goa

CMP 471.55
Target 482-489
Stop loss 454
Support resistance 455 / 495

TATA STEEL

CMP 695.70
Target 710-725
Stop loss 670
Support resistance 670 / 735

Commodity Tips for the Week

GOLD:

US GOLD ROSE AS MUCH AS TO $1,120/OZ ON COMEX, HELPED BY A DROP IN THE DOLLAR ON WORSE-THAN EXPECTED US ADP EMPLOYMENT DATA. GOLD FUTURES ROSE FOR A FOURTH DAY IN THE LAST FIVE TRADING DAYS. THE DOLLAR FELL 0.5 PERCENT AGAINST A BASKET OF SIX MAJOR CURRENCIES AFTER ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORTS SHOWED THAT US PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYERS CUT 23,000 JOBS IN MARCH.


TECHNICALS
COMEX GOLD IS STILL WEEK ON CHARTS, BUT LAST WEEK IT HAS CONTINOUSLY SUSTAINED ABOVE $1100. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IF COMEX GOLD SUSTAINS BELOW $1084 AN OUNCE THEN IT CAN TEST THE LEVEL OF $1062 AND ON THE UPSIDE $1146 WILL BE A MAJOR RESISTANCE. UNTIL IT CROSSES AND SUSTAIN ABOVE $1146, WE CAN SEE ANOTHER DIP IN GOLD. IN THE COMING WEEK TRADERS CAN USE THE SELL ON HIGHER LEVEL STRATEGY BY KEEPING THE STRICT STOP LOSSES IN GOLD.
MAJOR RESISTANCE IN COMEX GOLD IS $1146 AND $1175 AND SUPPORTS AT $1084 AND $1050. MAJOR RESISTANCE IN MCX GOLD IS 16900 AND 17650 AND SUPPORTS AT 16250 AND 15710.


COPPER:

COPPER STARTED THE NEW QUARTER ON SOLID FOOTING, RALLYING TO A 20-MONTH PEAK ABOVE $358 IN COMEX FUTURES ON THURSDAY AFTER POSITIVE MANUFACTURING DATA FROM CHINA, EUROPE AND THE U.S. BOLSTERED DEMAND SENTIMENT. COMEX COPPER HAS BEEN IN AN UPTREND FOR THE ENTIRE PREVIOUS WEEK. AND HAS CROSSED THE ALL IMPORTANT RESISTANCE OF 359. FOR THE COMING WEEK TRADERS SHOULD USE THE STRATEGY OF BUYING ON LOWER LEVELS IF IT SUSTAINS ABOVE THE LEVEL OF 359. COMEX COPPER HAS CRUCIAL SUPPORT OF 341 AND 327 AND RESISTANCE OF 378 AND 390. FOR MCX COPPER SUPPORT IS FOUND AT 348 AND 332 AND RESISTANCE AT 370 AND 387.

Commodity Tips for the Week

Gold:

US gold futures ended above $1,100 an ounce on Friday, gaining 1 percent on the back of a euro rally based on a Greece rescue plan, and the metal was expected to take trading cues from the currency market.

Technicals

Comex gold is still technically weak, & last week it was in a range between $1083 to $1110 an ounce. If COMEX gold sustains below $1083 an ounce then it can test the level of $1050 and on the upside $1150 will be a major hurdle to change the trend of Gold. In the coming week traders can use the sell on higher level strategy by keeping the strict stop losses in gold.
Major resistance in COMEX gold is $1160 and $1175 and supports at $1078 and $1050. Major resistance in MCX gold is 17250 and 17650 and supports at 15970 and 15710.



Copper:

US copper futures settled up near a two-week high on Friday as investor appetite for risk improved and the dollar surrendered recent gains against the euro after euro zone leaders agreed on a plan to help debt-strapped Greece.
Comex copper has been in a tight range between 343 and 330 levels for the past two weeks. Unless the prices sustain above 349 level we can still say that copper is weak and if it breaks and sustain below 329 level it can further test the support of 319. For the coming week traders should use the strategy of sell on higher levels until copper sustains above 349. Comex copper has a crucial support of 329 and 316 and resistance at 355 and 375. For MCX copper support is found at 323 and 311 and resistance at 354 and 371.

Stock Tips for the Week

Nifty commenced the week on a subdued note on the back of rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India and weak global cues. However, it continued its upward journey after this short correction and managed to close around 5,280 mark. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty added 0.5% each to close at 17,645 and 5,282 respectively.
Banking and the FMCG stocks were in demand, on the other hand, Realty and the Small-Cap stocks witnessed some offloading.
The FIIs continued to be net buyers in the Indian markets; they bought to the tune of Rs21.3bn in the last five days. On the other hand, the DIIs were net seller to the tune of Rs6.58bn.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly raised rates for the first time since July 2008 after inflation accelerated to a 16-month high. India’s central bank increased the benchmark reverse repo rate to 3.5% from a record-low 3.25% and the repurchase rate to 5% from 4.75%. The surprise decision comes a month before the bank’s scheduled monetary policy meeting.
FOR THE NEXT WEEK, Upside 5325 is the immediate major resistance for Nifty and if this level is breached, an upward move until 5,375 can be expected. Downside, it can test 5150-5120 levels if the crucial 5180 support level is breached.

Global markets movement will also remain the key factor in deciding the trend for Indian market.


And now some hot stocks for next week:

ALSTOM PROJECTS

Which has closed at Rs. 626.55 in Fridays session, and has given a breakout on the weekly chart. The daily RSI is in strong buy mode. The stock has closed above all its key daily moving averages.

We recommend high risk traders to buy the stock between the ranges of Rs. 620-630 with a stop loss of Rs. 600 for a target of Rs. 680.

TATA MOTORS

100 day DMA has provided good support in Tata motors in last two months. If the market sustains momentum, the stock can post some decent gains.

The stock is witnessing strong accumulation at current level, which suggest that it may eventually result into an upward move from the crucial support line.


A break above Rs. 760 could lead to a fresh up move. The daily RSI has entered into a strong buying mode.

We recommend high risk traders to buy the stock between the range of 745-756 with a stop loss of 732 for a target of 785 and 795.


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Commodity in COMEX

Gold and Copper Outlook for the Week



GOLD:

NEW YORK GOLD FUTURES DROPPED IN MIXED TRADE ON FRIDAY AS PRE-WEEKEND POSITION-SQUARING MORE THAN OFFSET A WEAKER DOLLAR AND A REPORT SHOWING AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN U.S. RETAIL SALES IN FEBRUARY.

TECHNICALS

COMEX GOLD STILL IS IN CONSOLIDATION PHASE AND SUSTAINING BELOW $1150 AN OUNCE, $1150TO $1160 WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO CHANGE THE TREND OF GOLD FOR IFCOMEX GOLD BREAKS THE LEVEL OF $1150 AN OUNCE AND SUSTAINS ABOVE IT , SO COMEX GOLD CAN SHOW A SLIGHT UPWARD MOVE ABOVE $1160/ $1170. AND IF COMEX GOLD DOES NOT SUSTAIN ABOVE THAT THEN BELOW $1079 IT CAN CONTINUE ITS DOWNWARD RALLY.

MAJOR RESISTANCE IN COMEX GOLD IS $1160 AND $1175 AND SUPPORTS AT $1078 AND $1045. MAJOR RESISTANCE IN MCX GOLD IS 17250 AND 17650 AND SUPPORTS AT 16250 AND 15950.

COPPER:

COPPER WAS MOSTLY FLAT ON FRIDAY, TRADING IN TIGHT RANGES WITH DOLLAR DECLINES SUPPORTING PRICES BUT WITH GAINS LIMITED BY WORRIES THAT CHINA MIGHT TIGHTEN MONETARY POLICY AND SLOW METALS DEMAND.
LAST WEEK WE SAW THAT MCX COPPER WAS WORKING IN A NARROW RANGE OF 336 TO 347 LEVELS. STILL COPPER IS NOT SUSTAINING AT HIGHER LEVELS AND FALLING SHARPLY FROM ITS DAY HIGH. IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IF COMEX COPPER SUSTAINS BELOW 329 WE CAN SEE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD RALLY TOWARD THE LEVEL OF 320 TO 316 LEVEL.

FOR THE COMING WEEK COMEX COPPER HAS RESISTANCE AT 355 AND 375 AND SUPPORTS AT 317 AND 287.

IN MCX COPPER RESISTANCE IS FOUND AT 354 AND 370 AND SUPPORTS AT 323 AND 313.

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Stock Tips for the Week

Stock Tips



It was a good week for the Indian markets as the indices after huge consolidation finally gave an upside breakout on account of friendly budget by our Finance Minister Mr. Pranab Mukherjee. The measures which were taken in the budget focused on lower fiscal deficit ahead , implementation of GST and DTC from 1st April, 2011, focus on infrastructure growth in long term and tax relaxation for individuals and corporate. Both the indices the Sensex and Nifty surged more than 1.50% and managed to give a weekly close above their crucial levels of 16200 and 4900. For the coming week our market may take cues from how the global markets pan out. Technically, nifty will continue to face resistance at higher levels of 4970/5040 and will simultaneously find support at 4860/4830 levels. A decisive break of either range of 5040 on the upside or 4830 on the downside will give further direction of the markets. If we maintain above the 5040 mark then further rally may continue up to 5080/5130 levels whereas if the downside support is broken then nifty may drag towards 4780/4740 levels.

Stock to watch for the upcoming week:

Hindzinc: Hindzinc in its daily charts is replicating a bottoming formation. The stock is consolidating in the range of 1125 on the upside and 1065 on the downside. Once the stock gives a decisive breakout above its resistance mark of 1125-1130 the stock can head towards 1165/1190 levels whereas immediate support for the stock is seen at 1095 mark.

Commodity Outlook for the Week

Commodity Tips



Copper:

Technical view:

Copper MCX has broken an important trend channel on the downside, so overall trend in copper is weak. As a natural technical tendency it might go for testing the trend line of the channel which has resistance around 340 area and then correct again on the downside. Major support levels on the downside are 323/318/313.50. A crossover of 345 levels on the higher will doom the chances of correction and the trend then will be positive.

Strategy:

As the overall trend is weak, copper should be shorted on rise to the levels near 338-340 for targets 330/323/318/313.50 or if doesn’t shows a rise it should shorted below 323 levels for targets of 320/318/313.50.

Gold:

International COMEX Gold is currently trading in a range of a symmetrical triangle which is most likely to break to its important supply zone of 1132 level and shoot up.

The up move breakout will of course not be easy as 1129-1132 levels will act as a strong hurdle which needs to be crossed before we confirm an uptrend in gold.
Gold is also forming a inverted head and shoulders which is again signaling a reversal in trend on the positive side.

Strategy:

Long positions can be built in gold above 1132 for targets of 1141, 1147, 1162. However if gold breaks 1088 level on the downside, it dooms the chances of an uptrend in short term.

Silver:

International COMEX silver is also forming a symmetrical triangle, after it had a breakdown from big head & shoulders pattern, overall longer term trend looks negative in silver, but in short term, if we talk about next 1-2 weeks, it might see some corrective rally on the upside if it crosses the major resistance level of 1657.

Strategy:

Long positions can be built in silver above 1657 levels 1680/1695/1725. On the higher 1725-1740 can act as a good supply zone and bears will try hard to take the lead from there and trend can move in a negative direction. So one should be looking to short around 1725-1740 levels on the rise.

Crude:
Technical view:


Crude is overall in bullish trends and is facing strong resistance around 80.50-81 levels.
Beyond $ 81 it can continue the uptrend up to 82.30, 83.90,86 levels. On the downside $ 76 is a major support level and below which the trend can move in the negative direction for targets of $ 74, 72.50, and 69.50.

Strategy:

Long positions can be built above the levels of 81 for targets of 82.30, 83.90,86.
And could be shorted below $ 76 for targets of $ 74, 72.50 and 69.50.