Commodity Outlook

Commodity Tips for the


Week



Gold

Gold Prices Posted a Third Straight Week of Declines as Strong Economic Data Boosted the Dollar and Commodity Investors Remained Cautious of a U.S. Proposal to Limit Bank Risks. The Euro Hit a Rough Patch This Week Against the U.S. Currency, Tumbling to Below $1.39 Due to Fiscal Fears in Euro-Zone Countries and Strong U.S. Data. A Stronger Dollar Cuts into Bullion's Appeal as a Dollar Hedge. Gold is Down About 2 Percent so far in 2010. The Emergence of US Dollar With Gains Continued to Slam Gold in the Global Market. However, Despite Weak Global Cues, the Domestic Gold Futures Surged Slightly on Friday Due to Weakness in Rupee. Gold Ended Weaker Touching a Near Three-Month Low as a Dollar Rise and Uncertainty About how U.S. President Barack Obama's Proposal to Limit Risk Taking by Banks Could Affect Gold Trading.


Technicals

This Week Comex Gold Took A Major Support of 1073/1070 And Still Sustaining Above That, if Cox Gold Breaks The Level of 1070 And Sustains Below That Then it Can Come Around 1045 $ an Ounce And Further Below 1030 to 1025 $ an Ounce.
Now the Supports And Resistance for the Coming Week are:

Major Support for Comex Gold in the Coming Week Would be 1169 and 1125
Gold
Gold Prices Posted a Third Straight Week of Declines as Strong Economic Data Boosted the Dollar and Commodity Investors Remained Cautious of a U.S. Proposal to Limit Bank Risks. The Euro Hit a Rough Patch This Week Against the U.S. Currency, Tumbling to Below $1.39 Due to Fiscal Fears in Euro-Zone Countries and Strong U.S. Data. A Stronger Dollar Cuts into Bullion's Appeal as a Dollar Hedge. Gold is Down About 2 Percent so far in 2010. The Emergence of US Dollar With Gains Continued to Slam Gold in the Global Market. However, Despite Weak Global Cues, the Domestic Gold Futures Surged Slightly on Friday Due to Weakness in Rupee. Gold Ended Weaker Touching a Near Three-Month Low as a Dollar Rise and Uncertainty About how U.S. President Barack Obama's Proposal to Limit Risk Taking by Banks Could Affect Gold Trading.
Technicals
This Week Comex Gold Took A Major Support of 1073/1070 And Still Sustaining Above That, if Cox Gold Breaks The Level of 1070 And Sustains Below That Then it Can Come Around 1045 $ an Ounce And Further Below 1030 to 1025 $ an Ounce.

Now the Supports And Resistance for the Coming Week are:

Major Support for Comex Gold in the Coming Week Would be 1169 and 1125

Major Resistance for Comex Gold in the Coming Week Would be 1124$ and 1147$

Major Support in MCX Gold Is 16030 And 15420

Major Resistance in MCX Gold is 16590 and 17120

Copper

Copper Prices Closed at A 2-1/2-Month low on Friday, After Surprisingly Strong U.S. Economic Data Failed to Halt the Bearish Impact This Week From a Stronger Dollar And Tighter Monetary Policy in China.

Prices of Copper, Suffered Their Worst Monthly Losses Since December 2008.
Copper Has Broken its 4 Month old Upward Trading Channel, and Has Broken Its Crucial Supports.

Comex Copper Is Looking Highly Bearish and Till Now There is no Buying at Lower Levels.
For the Upcoming Week if Comex Copper Sustains Below 303 Level then it Can Touch the Level of 292.

Comex Copper has Support at 303 and 292 Levels and Resistance at 310 and 325 Levels.

MCX Copper is at its Crucial Support of 313 and Below that it has Support at 300 and 289 Levels and Resistance at 317 and 329 Levels.


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Nifty Tips for the Week

Nifty Outlook for Next

Week



Nifty Had Broken the Vital Support Base of 5000 & Trading Below it. Technically Nifty is Looking Week. In the Previous Week There Were two Important Events Which did Affect the Market.

First the Expiry of F&O & Second the Credit Policy Announcement. In the Credit Policy Announcement RBI Hike CRR By 75 Bps. Repo, Reverse Repo Unchanged.
The RBI Hiked The CRR By 75 Bps To 5.75% From 5%. The Move Will be Implemented in Two Stages; 50 BPS Hike W.E.F February 13 and 25 Bps Hike W.E.F February 27. This CRR Hike Will Absorb Rs 36,000 Crore of Excess Liquidity From the Markets. However, the RBI Kept Repo and Reverse Repo Rate Unchanged. The Revision in GDP Forecast to 7.5% from 6% was a Surprise for the Markets.

In this Week I Expect that Nifty Could Trade in Negative Territory & One Could go for Sell on Higher Level Strategy Until it Close Above 5000.

Technical Resistance: 5000 & 5175

Support: 4750 & 4550


Stock Futures to Watch in Next Week.

Oriental Bank of Commerce

This Stock Future is Looking Promising One for the Long Side.
In This Stock we Had Seen Good Fresh Position Built up & Rise in Open Interest Also & the Kind of Pattern it is making in Charts Indicating That it Could Make Good Breakout this Week.
We Recommend This above 297 for the Target Of 320 & the Stop Loss Would be Around 289Levels.

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NIFTY FOR TOMORROW

NIFTY SHOWEE HIGH VOLATILITY TODAY DUE TO EXPIRY OF F&O. BUT ONE THING THAT IS VITAL IS THE NEW LOW, NIFTY HAS BROKEN YESTERDAY'S LOW & MADE NEW LOW TODAY.I EXPECT THAT UNTIL NIFTY CLOSE ABOVE 5000, IT COULD CONTINUE IN ITS DOWN TREND.

WE RECOMMEND IN NIFTY THE SELL ON HIGHER LEVEL STRATEGY.

THE MAJOR SUPPORT BASE IS SEEN AROUND 4750 TO 4805 LEVEL.

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Commodity Market Outlook for the Week

Gold

U.S. Gold Futures Ended Down on Friday, of Their One-Month Low Hit Earlier in the Session, as President Barack Obama's Proposal to Limit Banks' Risk-Taking Pressured the Commodity Markets. Gold Futures Continued to Fall in the Domestic Futures Market on Friday Due to Worsening Global Sentiments Driven by Strong US Dollar.

Technicals

Last Week Comex Gold Took a Major Support of 1080/ 1073 and Slightly Recovered at the End at the Week, but in the Coming Week if Gold Sustains Below $1120 and Breaks the Level of $1070 Chances of Gold in the Coming Week Would be $1050 and After that $1025 to $1030.
Now the Supports and Resistance for the Coming Week are:
Major Support for Comex Gold in the Coming Week would be 1170 and 1148
Major Resistance for Comex Gold in the Coming Week Would Be 1124$ and 1146$
Major Support in MCX Gold is 16070 and 15425
Major Resistance in MCX Gold is 16950 and 17300.

Copper

MCX Copper Ended Higher on Friday, as Fund Buying Gathered Steam After Prices of the Metal Fell to one-Month Lows on Concerns over Potential Chinese Monetary Tightening and Proposed Sweeping Restrictions on U.S. Banks.

Other Metal Prices Remained Depressed, With both Zinc And Nickel Falling Around 5 Percent, but Copper Remained Strong and did not Sustained Below its Crucial Support of 334 Even When Other Base Metals were Making New Lows.
For the Upcoming week Traders Should Use the Strategy of buy on Dips in Copper until and unless it sustains below 334.

For Next Week Comex Copper has Support of 329 And 310 And Resistance of 345 And 359 Levels.

MCX Copper Has a Major Support of 333 and below that it has Support of 317 Level. On the Upside Copper has Resistance at 352 And 359 Levels.


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Stock Market Preview for the Week

Here is a preview of Stock Market for the week.

Asian equities and markets all around the world fell in the week as U.S. President Barack Obama proposed measures to reduce risk-taking at banks, raising concerns the plans will curb lenders’ profits and hurt the global economic recovery.

Stocks, commodities, gold, and crude oil, tumbled last week, as investors see the end of a great liquidity cycle coming to an end, as the US moves to rein in proprietary trading by banks, and central banks begin to roll back easy monetary policies to curb inflationary expectations.
Central banks of emerging market are likely to start raising interest to fight high inflation. Large sell-off by foreign funds also contributed to the decline.
However, according to the economic advisor of India’s finance ministry, 9% growth rate is seen for the next financial year.
We expect the reserve bank of india to raise the cash reserve ratio (CRR), the proportion of deposits banks needed to keep with the central bank, by up to 50 basis points (0.5%) in its January 29 policy review.

STRATEGY FOR NIFTY FOR NEXT WEEK :

IF NIFTY HOLDS 4937, ONE COULD BUY AT LOWER LEVELS WITH STOP LOSS PLACED AT 4900, FOR TARGETS OF 5085 AND 5150, BUT BE CAUTIOUS BELOW 4900.
MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Nifty support1 4937 support2 4801 Resistance1 5085 Resistance2 5176

IMPORTANT STOCKS TO WATCH FOR NEXT WEEK ARE

HCL TECH : LOOKING STRONG ON CHARTS AND ABOVE 389 MAY HIT 398-408-415 WITH STOPLOSS OF 370 LEVELS.

UNITED SPIRITS : ALSO KNOWN AS MC DOWELL, THIS STOCK IS ALSO LOOKING GUD ON CHARTS, AS STOCHASTIC OCILLATOR IS SHOWING A BUY CROSS OVER, IN DAILY CHART AND MAY HIT 1320-1350 IN NEAR FUTURE IF IT CONTINUES TO STAY ABOVE 1250 LEVELS, SO KEEP THIS AS UR STOPLOSS.


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NIFTY FOR NEXT WEEK

NIFTY HAS BROKEN CRUCIAL SUPPORT LINE IN DAILY AS WELL AS IN WEEKLY CHART. NIFTY WITNESSED HUGE SELLING PRESSURE FROM LAST TWO TRADING SESSIONS & ALSO MADE CLOSING BELOW THE SUPPORT LINE. I EXPECT THAT THIS DOWNTREND COULD CONTINUE IN NIFTY & WE COULD SEE THE LEVEL OF 4900. CLOSING BELOW 4900 COULD LEAD NIFTY TOWARDS 4750 LEVEL. NOW NIFTY HAS MAJOR SUPPORT AROUND 4750 LEVEL.


I RECOMMEND THAT TRADERS SHOULD GO FOR SHORT IN NIFTY AT EVERY HIGHER LEVEL UNTIL IT MAKES CLOSING ABOVE 5060.


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Stocks for the Week

Sobha Developers:

Sobha Developers will have a very good breakout above 310 levels, so it can be bought above 310 levels for targets of 318/325/334 with SL of 299.90.

Kakatiya Cements:

Kakatiya Cements will have a huge breakout above 115 levels for targets of 119/124/129 with sl of 109.90


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Commodity Market Outlook for the Week

Gold:

International Comex Gold is trading in an upward rising trend channel, with major support at 1125,1118 and resistance at higher levels are at 1147,1150. If Gold takes good support around the levels of 1125-1130, then it can be bought around these levels with stop loss of 1118, for targets of 1140,1145. Beyond 1150 it will be further bullish for targets of 1158,1163.

Silver:

International Comex Silver is trading in a range of Symmetrical Triangle with major support at 1834-35 levels below which it can correct up to 1823,1809 levels and if doesn’t breaks the level of 1834-1835 it can bounce from here and then one take buying position in it with SL of 1834 for targets of 1853/1864.

Copper:

International Comex Copper is trading in a range of 329-346.50, it can be further week below 330 for targets of 325,321 and risky traders can apply a reverse strategy to buy on dips around 332-333 with SL of 329 for targest 339,342 and beyond 346.50 a further good up move can be observed in Copper.

Crude:

International Comex Crude is in a correction mode currently and it has good support around 77.50 levels, below which it can further correct, although indicators are showing positive divergences so it might from these support levels but overall trend still remains week in it. So a strategy of sell on rise should be applied in it.

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Nifty and Sensex Outlook for the Coming Days

If we consider 2010, Sensex is only 3652.47 points away from its life time high and if companies over the world markets keep posting good results and keep forecasting good fundamental growth, a new high this year will be very much possible and achievable. As comparison with the life time high 21206.77 of Sensex in January 2008 with current levels of 17554.30, Sensex is only nearly 17% away from the life time high.

Another major thing which is always seen in the mid of the Bull market is the rally of midcap stocks. Currently midcap stocks are showing good gains with most of the Stocks near to its 52 week high. This signifies that major part of the rally still may be impending and still market sentiments are not completely Bullish and investors sentiments are still not so positive which can actually be a positive sign for the market in the long run. Because a wise investor is fearful when whole world is greedy and he is greedy when whole world is fearful. When a Bull market is about to come to an end, market is full of positive news with every small stocks rising and market sees a entry of lot of new greedy investors.

As we all knows that market in consolidation phrase and nifty having thin range of 5150-5300. If we see technically nifty retraced more than 61.8% from its all time low and these days nifty trying to maintain its higher levels, there are a lot of numbers being thrown at the market at this point. There is the monetary policy in the next couple of weeks. Also, flows from FII have turned a bit unenthusiastic. To generate some momentum from these levels, WE need the support of dollars and that has not been there in the market for the last couple of days. Now a day’s market does not reacting on macro economics situation such as INFLATION and IIP nos. We think it’s focused on the micro and wants to see what the numbers are like in the current season. Yes, it will be focused on the earnings. Around that there will be marginal things like oil and maybe some disinvestment news which the market might will be focused on.

Nifty having major Resistance @ 5315 level and if it maintains this than only it can move towards 5380-5500 soon.


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Stock Tips for the Week

Nifty Future Overview

In This Week We Had Seen The Upside Consolidation in Nifty Future. If We See Technically Nifty Future it has Major Resistance At 5305 Level. If Nifty Break This Level With Good Volume & Close Above it, we Could Expect The Target Of 5450 in it.
In Past we had Also Seen Profit Booking At Higher Levels. So in This Also we Could Expect Some Profit Booking at the Level of 5300 But After the Slight Correction
We Could Expect The Bounce Back in it.In This Week as Trading Started at 9 Am, So We Had Seen the Decline in Volatility & in Liquidity as Well. So This Trend Might be Continuing in This Week as Well.

Strategy for Traders:Nifty Is Looking To Hold Its

Uptrend & Technically We Are Expecting That Once It Could Hit The Level of 5300 Again. So Traders Could Go For Buy Nifty at Every Decline & They Should Also Book
The Profit Near To Major Resistance Levels.

Major Support: 5200 & 5165.
Major Resistance: 5305 & 5350.


Stock Futures to Watch for This Week.

Bull Side:

Grasim Future:


This Stock In Future Had Made
Good Breakout of the Downward
Trend Line in Weekly Chart With
Good Volume.
In This Week We Are Expecting That
Bull Run Could Be Continue In It &
We Could Expect the Target Of
2840 In It and If Close Above This
The Next Target Could Be Around 2900.
It Has The Major Support Around 2665 Level.

Bear Side:

TCS Future:

In This Stock We Had Seen Huge Selling In It And Also Looking Now In Bear Trend.
In Candlestick Charts It Is Making Very Bearish Pattern, So We Are Expecting That This Trend Could Be Continue For This Week As Well.
In TCS Future We Could Expect The Target Of 675 And After It Next Target Could Be 660.


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Gold and Copper Tips for the Week

Gold

New York Gold Futures Ended Higher After a Volatile Session on Friday, Snapping a Five-Week Losing Streak, as The Dollar Fell Sharply After a Report Showed That U.S. Employers Unexpectedly Cut Jobs in December. The Disappointing Employment Report Dampened Hopes an Economic Recovery May be on the Way, Slashing Expectations That a U.S. Interest Hike May be Imminent – i.e. A Bullish Signal For Gold And Equities. Gold Prices Have Benefited From Low Interest Rates in The Last Year, Which Contributed to Dollar Weakness and Cut the Opportunity Cost of Holding Non-Interest Bearing Assets.

Technicals

This Week Comex Gold Has Broken its Downturn Channel And Breaks its Crucial Level of 1120 and Sustaining Above That.

Now the Supports and Resistance for The Coming Week are:
Major Support for Comex Gold in the Coming Week would be 1113 and 1074
Major Resistance for Comex Gold in the Coming Week Would Be 1150 And 1176
Major Support in MCX Gold Is 16570 and 16440
Major Resistance in MCX Gold is 17050 and 17300


Copper

U.S. Copper Futures Ended Lower On Last Week As Sentiment Soured After Unexpectedly Weak U.S. Employment Data Signaled a Very Slow And Arduous Economic Recovery. Comex Copper Was Expected To Correct A Bit After Touching The Level Of 352, Last Week It Did a High Of 354 And Then Corrected Till 340.
For The Coming Week if Comex Copper Sustains Below 338, We Can See a Slight Downward Rally Till 329 Level.

Copper is in an Upward Trading Channel & One Should Use the Strategy of Buy on Dips.
For the Upcoming Week Resistance for Comex Copper Will be 359 and 378 Levels & Support Will be at 328 &308.

For MCX Copper Resistance would be Found at 360 & 371 & Support at 335 & 317.

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Stock Tips for the Week

Equity Market Outlook for the Week:

Indian market bid farewell to 2009 on a strong note, with the Sensex touching a new high for the year while the Nifty closed above the crucial level of 5200. The Sensex shot up by 80% in the year while the Nifty gained 75%The stock market in 2009 mostly derived strength from the government's fiscal packages and sustained capital inflows. India recorded 7 % growth in the first half of this fiscal, thanks to increased manufacturing activity. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have bought shares worth over Rs 80,000 crore - a record high.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pour in US$17.4bn into Indian stocks year 2009, including US$14bn via QIP, IPOs, ADRs, GDRs, etc. Last year, they had pulled out US$13bn in the wake of the western financial turmoil and the subsequent slowdown in the global economy. Entering the New Year, however, a lot of this has changed. Large price rises have eaten up what were seen as historic opportunities and central banks are preparing to haul back the liquidity. Some tight 2009 correlations are already breaking down, leaving investors to work a bit harder for their buck. 2010 is going to be a year of discrimination with a very long bias toward quality, the need for more selective thinking also comes from the state of the global economy, which although improving, is both uneven and breakable. Investors have become more cautious about the investment backdrop as a result, a caution intensified by debt problems in Dubai, Greece, Spain and elsewhere.we feel that Nifty & sensex can break its life time high of 21k and 6300 this year also but for the week Nifty having a strong resistanced @ 5285 level if Nifty will able to settle above this level than 5400 is not far for market and down side market took support @ 5150 & 5080.


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Commodity Tips for The Week

Commodity Market:

Gold prices sealed their biggest absolute annual gain in three decades with a small advance on Thursday, rising for an unprecedented ninth year in a row after dollar-hedging traders and central banks joined investors who turned to gold for price performance and protection. After 2008's roller coaster, this year was one of fairly consistent gains for bullion, favored as a hedge against economic uncertainties after the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Market overview

This week, Comex Gold was is consolidation phase, due to the Christmas holidays and the New Year break in the U.S market. Due to lack of liquidity and volumes, Comex gold did not close above 1100$. If Comex gold crosses the level of it can show good up move further and if it doesn't crosses this level, below 1073$ level it can come up to 1020$-1025$ levels.

Technical View on Gold:

Gold is consolidating in a range of 1120-1075 dollars currently. Below 1075 dollars it can see correction up to 1055/1030 dollars and on the upside breakout of 1120 level will be bullish for Gold again for targets of 1142/1160/1176.

Technical View on Silver:

Silver is currently trading a downward trading channel, 1710.5 is major resistance level in it, above that it will be bullish for targets of 1728,1740,1758 and Silver has major support around 1668 level below which it can see the levels of 1650/1630/1613.

Technical View on Copper:

International Comex Copper is trading in an upward rising channel with 340 as major resistance on the upside and 315 is major support on the downside. If Copper doesn’t cross 340 which will act as a major hurdle on its way, it can see some correction and traders can built a short position there with tight stop losses for targets of 330/322/316.

Technical View of Crude:

International Comex Crude is also trading in a Rising Trend Channel with 82 dollar as a major resistance in it. Last time it had taken a strong resistance at this particular level and then had dropped down to the levels of 68.59 $. It closed at 79.36 dollars on Friday, So, it’s very near to its major resistance level of 82 with all the major technical indicators being positive, if it crosses this level this time and sustains above it, then it can rise up to 86.50,89.90,94.50 levels.


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